U.S. 2Y
—LoadingWAITINGMONDAY, AUGUST 24, 2026
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CURRENT REGIME · LIVE MODEL
Waiting for enough fresh data.
The model will publish only after at least 70% of its inputs are fresh.
—RISK SCORE
CALCULATING
CALCULATING
U.S. 10Y
—LoadingWAITINGU.S. 30Y
—LoadingWAITINGJapan 10Y
—LoadingWAITINGDXY
—LoadingWAITINGUSD / JPY
—LoadingWAITINGBitcoin
—LoadingWAITINGEthereum
—LoadingWAITINGGold
—LoadingWAITINGVIX
—LoadingWAITINGRISK ATTRIBUTION
Why the score is withheld
CROSS-ASSET READ
What matters now
01
TREASURY + DOLLAR
The long end is below the first danger line.
DXY is confirming the bond move, increasing pressure on growth equities and Bitcoin.
Reduce risk trigger30Y > 5.25% + DXY > 101
02
JAPAN TRANSMISSION
The yen remains below the intervention-risk line.
USD/JPY at — keeps intervention and repatriation risk active. A disorderly reversal can transmit directly into Treasuries and long-duration equities.
Escalation triggerUSD/JPY > 155 + rising JGB volatility
PORTFOLIO LENS
Concentrated conviction, controlled risk
AssetLive priceMoveTheme / actionPrimary risk
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ACTION QUEUE
Portfolio actions and hedges
Do nowPortfolio
Carry core exposure
Hold core AI infrastructure and hard-asset exposure. Add only through planned tranches.
Hedge triggerMacro
Watch the long end with DXY
Add defined-risk QQQ or SMH protection if the 30Y holds above 5.25% and DXY confirms above 101. Increase protection above 5.50%.
Add triggerAI infra
Demand confirmation before adding AI
Add only after QQQ stabilizes and the AI basket stops underperforming. Do not average down into an accelerating drawdown.
CarryHard assets
Keep Bitcoin core; avoid leverage
A DXY below 100 supports Bitcoin. Reduce leverage first if DXY breaks 101 while Bitcoin loses 3% on the day.